Operational Consensus Forecasts

Consensus forecasts and ine¢ cient information aggregation

Consensus forecasts are ine¢ cient, because the weight placed on aggregate new private information relative to the prior re‡ects the optimal choices of the underlying individual forecasters— whose private signals are noisier individually than in aggregate— and as a result the consensus forecast over-weights the prior (Lim, Kim and Shaw, 2001). This paper assesses the empirical relevance of this...

Consensus forecasts and ine¢ cient information

Consensus forecasts are ine¢ cient. The weight placed on new information re‡ects the choices of the underlying individual forecasters— whose new information is noisier individually than in aggregate— so that the consensus forecast overweights older information. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper …nds that: consensus forecasts are ine¢ cie...

Security Consensus Operational Readiness Evaluation

Guidance on Verification of Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions

Previous research on defining and measuring consensus (agreement) among forecasters has been concerned with evaluation of forecasts of continuous variables. This previous work is not relevant when the forecasts involve binary decisions: up-down or win-lose. In this paper we use Cohen’s kappa coefficient, a measure of inter-rater agreement involving binary choices, to evaluate forecasts of Natio...